U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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الغد
Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 231927 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0127 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017 


Valid 232000z - 241200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over a 
large portion of California into the southern Great Basin and near 
the North Carolina Outer Banks this afternoon. 


The only minor changes to the previous outlook involve 1) removal of 
the 10-percent thunderstorm probability over the mid-Atlantic states 
and 2) including a small area of low-thunder probabilities near the 
NC Outer Banks. 


.Smith.. 01/23/2017 


Previous discussion... /issued 1010 am CST Mon Jan 23 2017/ 


A deep upper low will continue to track eastward across the mid 
Atlantic states today, providing cool temperatures aloft and 
marginal instability for a few thunderstorms. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of the southwest US 
as strong onshore flow and several embedded shortwave troughs affect 
the region. Severe storms are not anticipated in either of these 
areas. 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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Mesoscale discussion 0130 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0356 am CST Mon Jan 23 2017 


Areas affected...west-central Florida Gulf Coast 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 230956z - 231130z 


Probability of watch issuance...5 percent 


Summary...locally strong wind gusts will be possible, primarily 
along the west-central Florida Gulf Coast, as a fast-moving band of 
thunderstorms moves onshore from Tampa/St. Petersburg to Fort Myers 
between 10-11z. The threat for strong wind gusts will be greatest 
near the coast. 


Discussion...mosaic radar imagery and infrared satellite imagery showed a 
fast-moving (50 kt) band of low-topped thunderstorms approaching the 
west-central Florida Gulf Coast, with this band expected to reach 
the Tampa/St. Petersburg area around 10z, and then into Fort Myers 
by 11z. This activity was located within the leading area of upward 
vertical motion with a progressive shortwave trough advancing east 
through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Marginal instability and a 
steep low-level lapse rate environment (0-3 km of 7-7.5 c/km) near 
the coast could prove favorable for momentum Transfer of stronger 
winds to the surface. A more stable low-level environment inland 
away from the coast should allow the storms to weaken and limit 
stronger winds from reaching the surface. 


.Peters/Thompson.. 01/23/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...tbw... 


Latitude...Lon 28008287 27968266 27368248 26838214 26658224 26948258 
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