HS 102

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 630 PM PST Sat 7 Nov 2009

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

Westerly flow is expected to continue across the pz5 waters tonight...then become more southwesterly by sun. Still expect gales across the Washington and Oregon waters Sun night into Mon as a cold front moves across the area. The NAM is showing a stronger system than the GFS...but attm will lean more towards the GFS solution.

Farther S...high pres W of the pz6 waters is combining with a thermal trof along the srn California coast to produce winds up to 30 kt across portions of the central and srn California offshore waters. Conditions will weaken by Mon...then strengthen again by Wed and Thu as a cold front drops S into the srn California waters. Minimal gales are possible by Thu...but attm will hold the winds at 30 kt.

The wavewatch model looks reasonable and will be followed fairly closely during the forecast period. Large swell will continue to affect the waters tonight and sun.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion

The pattern across the offshore waters will remain very progressive ovr pz5 waters while fronts press S into CA waters and weaken. Latest scat pass indicates 20-30 kt winds across pz5 waters. Recent obs ovr mim area tend to be several ft greater than ww3 fcst...therefor in next pkg will make needed adjustemt to ww3. 12z GFS is in pretty good agreement with prv run with only minor changes. Expect next chance for gales on Sun night inadv of frontal bndry. The global models are also in reasonable agreement...although ECMWF is further SW with low center Sun night along the frontal bndry. Further S...the largest influence on the weather conditions will be the strength of the gradient along the CA CST. Attm I expect to keep Max winds to 30 kt along srn CA. A ridge of high pres will dominate much of the central CA wates and lighter winds will result.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale Sun night and Mon...MDT confdc. Gale Wed...low cnfdc. .Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale Sun night and Mon...MDT confdc. Gale Wed...low cnfdc.

.Pz6 California waters... .Pt St George to pt Arena...none. .Pt Arena to pt Conception...None. .Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.

.Forecaster nolt/Shaw. Ocean forecast branch.